By: Mo Ali
Somalilandsun – The main reason could because be Egypt wants to use Somalia as a proxy against Ethiopia for the sake of Nile waters . Egypt had used Somalia as a proxy against Ethiopia for decades. Egypt supplied Somalia with heavy weapons in the 1964 and 1977 wars against Ethiopia.
Now that the Ethiopians have established peaceful and friendly relations with Somalia and Somaliland , Egypt intends to stir conflict again in the region so that the Ethiopians will not have the peace of mind to utilise the abundant Blue Nile Waters that originate from the Ethiopian highlands .
The questions is, will the Somalis again fall into the Egyptian trap and start a reckless war with neighbouring Ethiopia? I think Al Shabaab for sure will be tempted to grab the chance to get the sympathy of the public and side with the Egyptians . As for Somaliland , Egyptian proxy is a matter of history. Somalilanders have long realised that the people of Ethiopia are their next of kin and that any conflict incited by outsiders will not be entertained.
Somalia on the other hand is unpredictable and could fall into the Egyptian trap and could start arming the locals in region 5 of Ethiopia which is mostly inhabited by ethnic Somalis.
Geographically any Nile water conflict will not be in favour of Egypt because South Sudan has established good relations with Ethiopia to export its oil through Djibouti via Ethiopia. Egypt will also not have effective support from the Arab League because of the MiddleEast democracy uprising and the civil war in Syria.
Ethiopia has long been fully deprived of utilising the Nile waters by the 1929 Nile agreement signed by the British to protect the supply of water to the cotton plantations in Sudan and Egypt. The treaty has recently been ratified and or /annulled to give full access to the Nile waters to the countries in the upstream.
It would , therefore , be wise for the Egyptians to keep their hands-off and stop meddling in the affairs of the Horn of Africa countries.